2
Ridari
4yo Colt · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 112
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 6th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.03 |
| 01/06/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | -0.00 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 17/08/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |