13
Abiat
5yo Filly · 8-2 · Draw 2
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de la Concorde Handicap · 7f 209y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 9th | 9th | +0 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 15th | 16th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 5-15 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 12/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/03/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 14/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 79% | -0.06 |