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8

Command The Stars

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 12

ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de la Concorde Handicap · 7f 209y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 08/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 1378/0752 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 90 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 90 parC1 @ Craon 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 92 · 1m44y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 92 par6/09C1OR 92C1 @ Saint-Cloud 03/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 96 · 1m1f207y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 96 par1 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 96 · 1m1f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 96 par15/041OR 962 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 94 · 7f127y Gd 132 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 94 par1 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 92 · 1m3f44y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 92 par23/051OR 923 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 94 · 7f192y GS 130 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 94 par21/082OR 94projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York26th7th−1
2026-07-27Ripon31st3rd−2
2026-05-23Goodwood14th4th+0
2026-05-07Chester27th8th−1
2026-04-15Newmarket17th7th+0
2025-10-03Saint-Cloud?7th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/073/1023/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/07/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
21/08/20252nd10/147%94%+0.47
06/09/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
03/10/20257th9/488%0%-0.88
15/04/20267th33/10%0%0.00
07/05/20267th33/10%45%+0.45
23/05/20264th28/10%0%0.00
27/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
21/08/20266th40/10%72%+0.72