11
Fire Rebel
5yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 11
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de la Concorde Handicap · 7f 209y
#13
Rank
Odds
60/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 5-15 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 61% | +0.61 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 07/06/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/09/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |