10
Melusine Du Houley
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 1
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de la Concorde Handicap · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.26 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 87% | +0.29 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 53% | -0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.37 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 91% | -0.02 |