15
Sous La Neige
6yo Gelding · 8-1 · Draw 13
ParisLongchamp · Qatar Prix de la Place de la Concorde Handicap · 7f 209y
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 3 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 3 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chantilly | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 12-15 · tight 81/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 23/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 03/03/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 10/05/2026 | 20th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 79% | +0.21 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 14% | -0.76 |