3
Charted Course
2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 87
Redcar · Racing TV EBF Stallions Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 10th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 59/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +12.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 17/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |