5
Bradbury
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 9 · OR 65
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |