1
Hibernate
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 6 · OR 69
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Bath | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |