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7

Jewel Maker

11yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 7 · OR 58

Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who ended a losing run at Carlisle (9f) in August. Well below par at Leicester and Ayr since though so needs to take a step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m1f Goo 133 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 60 par29/056OR 606 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 60 · 7f173y Goo 131 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m1f Goo 133 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par4/075OR 596 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m2f42y Sta 127 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 7f173y Goo 132 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 55 par11/086OR 556 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m2y Gd 132 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 1m1f Goo 142 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 52 par27/085OR 526 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f GS 134 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m Sft 130 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 59 par18/095OR 59projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr59th9th0
2026-09-08Leicester67th8th−1
2026-08-27Carlisle51st1st0
2026-08-24Musselburgh64th5th−1
2026-08-11Carlisle66th7th−1
2026-07-25Newcastle67th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0525/0727/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
15/06/20268th20/10%36%+0.36
04/07/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
25/07/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
11/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
24/08/20264th18/15%75%+0.70
27/08/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
08/09/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
18/09/20269th125/10%20%+0.20