Naturalia
5yo Mare · 9-10 · Draw 4 · OR 65
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |