9
Sassy Glory
5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 54
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · tight 85/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.33 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/07/2026 | 12th | 10/3 | 82% | 8% | -0.74 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/09/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |