Woodleigh
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 59
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |