2
Yafaarr
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 5 · OR 67
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 1y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 14/06/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 35% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |