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2

Alessia Fernanda

6yo Mare · 9-13 · Draw 2 · OR 67

Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored on her return (after a breathing operation) at Southwell (1m) in April. Her more recent form is much less encouraging though, so others appeal more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 23/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m13y Std 136 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 72 par23/105OR 725 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m5y Std 134 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 74 par2/065OR 745 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 74 · 7f6y GF 142 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 1m100y Goo 140 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 73 par4/075OR 735 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m6y Goo 132 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 72 · 7f218y Goo 132 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 72 par14/085OR 724 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 71 · 1m14y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 69 · 7f218y Gd 138 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 69 par14/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk56th6th0
2026-09-03Southwell47th6th+1
2026-08-14Thirsk56th6th0
2026-08-05Pontefract52nd2nd0
2026-07-04Beverley57th7th0
2026-06-22Catterick56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1022/0614/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/10/20257th13/266%33%-0.32
29/04/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
02/06/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
22/06/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
04/07/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
05/08/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
14/08/20266th14/126%64%+0.38
03/09/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
14/09/20266th10/147%38%-0.10