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3

Bay Dream Believer

7yo Mare · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 63

Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bagged handicaps at Pontefract (1¼m) in June and Nottingham (1m) in July. Has posted good third placings over C&D last 2 runs. Much respected eased 1 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 61 · 1m2f50y Goo 126 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 61 par18/045OR 615 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m1f170y Goo 124 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 58 · 1m2f5y Goo 124 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 par2/065OR 585 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 61 · 1m1f170y Gd 133 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m208y Goo 133 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 61 par30/066OR 615 @ Nottingham 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 1m75y Goo 131 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 7f173y Goo 141 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 64 par11/086OR 645 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 63 · 1m2f1y Goo 136 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 64 · 1m2f1y Goo 137 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 par9/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar53rd3rd0
2026-08-22Redcar53rd3rd0
2026-08-11Carlisle65th6th−1
2026-07-18Nottingham51st1st0
2026-06-30Musselburgh66th7th−1
2026-06-17Ripon57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0417/0611/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/202610th25/10%31%+0.31
17/05/20265th14/126%60%+0.34
02/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
17/06/20267th9/488%14%-0.74
30/06/20266th11/142%17%-0.25
18/07/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
11/08/20265th9/153%43%-0.10
22/08/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
09/09/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38