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9

Eagles Dream

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 52

Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden in Ireland for John Joseph Murphy. Yet to offer much for current yard, including following a breathing operation at Carlisle and Newcastle last 2 starts. Tongue strap now goes on for the first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 67 · 1m1f135y Goo 140 · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 67 par21/0767OR 67BHA69 @ Galway 28/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m4f84y Yie 119 · below its mark28/07/2025 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Galway 31/07/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 69 · 1m4f Sft 128 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 69 par31/0769OR 69C9 @ Killarney 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 69 · 1m6f80y Gd 130 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 66 · 1m1f Goo 140 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 66 par4/075OR 666 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 61 · 1m2f42y Sta 131 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 61 par25/076OR 615 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m1f Goo 148 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 55 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 55 par25/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle611th12th−1
2026-08-27Carlisle55th5th0
2026-07-25Newcastle611th12th−1
2026-07-13Ayr68th9th−1
2026-07-04Carlisle58th8th0
2025-08-22Killarney?5th9th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0722/0825/0725/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20253rd11/271%82%+0.11
28/07/20254th12/137%70%+0.33
31/07/202513th13/266%29%-0.36
22/08/20255th6/168%64%-0.05
04/07/20268th22/10%0%0.00
13/07/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
25/07/202611th25/10%17%+0.17
27/08/20265th28/10%43%+0.43
25/09/202611th12/137%23%-0.14