1
Hostility
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 3 · OR 68
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Carlisle | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |