4
Lady Hornblower
3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
74%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Doncaster | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Beverley | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 18th | 100/1 | 0% | 32% | +0.32 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |