5
Recobella
5yo Mare · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 60
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength39%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |