Tommo's Ginjaninja
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 61
Redcar · Prohibition Bar Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 1y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 4 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 14/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 11/09/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 10% | -0.45 |