1
Baddaddan
2yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 12 · OR 83
Redcar · William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) · 5f 217y
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 4 | 13th | 17th | −3 |
| 2026-08-22 | Newmarket | 2 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 66/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/08/2026 | 14th | 17/2 | 55% | 24% | -0.32 |
| 11/09/2026 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |