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12

Global Success

2yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 11 · OR 66

Redcar · William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) · 5f 217y

#12

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden. Made the frame for a fifth time with a solid fourth of 8 in nursery at Ayr (7f, soft) 15 days ago. This looks a tall order in this higher grade, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 5f10y Gd 12817/0444 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f160y Fm 1284 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12523/0644 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 67 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 67 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 114 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 67 par31/072OR 675 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 66 · 6f16y GF 128 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 67 · 7f GF 127 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 67 par26/085OR 672 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 66 · 7f Sft 128 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 66 par4 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 66 · 7f50y Sft 119 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 66 par18/094OR 66projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr44th8th−3
2026-09-08Goodwood23rd4th−1
2026-08-26Newbury55th10th−4
2026-08-09Chepstow52nd7th−4
2026-07-31Goodwood25th6th−1
2026-07-09Newbury42nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/049/0726/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 25/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20265th50/10%67%+0.67
27/04/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
23/06/20263rd28/10%78%+0.78
09/07/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
31/07/20265th50/10%76%+0.76
09/08/20262nd5/493%88%-0.06
26/08/20265th25/10%69%+0.69
08/09/20263rd20/10%33%+0.33
18/09/20264th20/10%57%+0.57