6
Quillan
2yo Colt · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 86
Redcar · William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) · 5f 217y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 3 | 5th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -28.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |