IvyArcIvyArc
3

Revels

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 5 · OR 104

Redcar · William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) · 5f 217y

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Debut winner of 7f Redcar maiden and doubled his tally on nursery debut at Glorious Goodwood (6f). Took his form up a level with an excellent fourth of 8 in Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury (6f, firm) 2 weeks ago. Holds very good claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 13318/0531 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 7f GF 13118/0612 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 85 par31/072OR 852 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 90 · 7f GS 131 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 90 par20/082OR 901 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 6f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 90 par19/091OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newbury14th4th+0
2026-08-20York210th11th−1
2026-07-31Goodwood21st2nd−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot19th9th0
2026-05-18Redcar31st4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0518/0631/0720/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
18/06/20269th14/126%38%+0.12
31/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
20/08/202610th7/163%47%-0.16
19/09/20264th22/10%57%+0.57