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10

Thames Waterman

2yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 8 · OR 85

Redcar · William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) · 5f 217y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Rajasinghe colt made a winning debut in 5f Wolverhampton maiden in April. Returned from 5 months off (gelded) with impressive all-the-way victory in 6f novice there 18 days ago. His first turf start demands more but he's open to further improvement and can't be ruled out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f21y Std 13010/0455 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 13715/095projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton51st6th−4
2026-04-10Wolverhampton51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0415/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -9.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
15/09/20261st1/999%100%+0.01