11
Too Many Spirits
2yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 74
Redcar · William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) · 5f 217y
#6
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 72/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |