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Audience

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 105

Redcar · John Smith's EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Group 1 winner for the Gosdens despite not being straightforward. Form went the wrong way in Dubai for this yard earlier in the year but has found some consistency of late, placed 4 times before a respectable fifth of 7 in Joel Stakes at Newmarket (1m, good to firm) 8 days ago. Not out of it.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Meydan 23/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 107 · 7f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 107 par23/01C?OR 107C0 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 106 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 106 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 106 par6/031OR 1061 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 104 · 6f212y Gd 136 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 102 · 7f35y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 102 par11/061OR 1021 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 106 · 7f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 106 · 1m Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 106 par6/081OR 1061 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 106 · 1m Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Newmarket 25/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 106 · 1m Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 106 par25/091OR 106projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newmarket15th5th+0
2026-09-12Leopardstown12nd2nd+0
2026-08-06Leopardstown13rd3rd+0
2026-07-19Curragh13rd3rd+0
2026-06-11Leopardstown12nd2nd+0
2026-05-09Haydock19th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/019/056/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/202612th8/158%21%-0.36
28/02/202611th20/10%0%0.00
06/03/202613th33/10%0%0.00
09/05/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
11/06/20262nd28/10%83%+0.83
19/07/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
06/08/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
12/09/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
25/09/20265th33/10%33%+0.33