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2

Elarak

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 105

Redcar · John Smith's EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 3-time 7f/1m winner in 2025. Yet to score this season but has made the frame on all his 6 starts, including when runner-up in Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot (7f) in June and third of 8 in listed event at Newbury (7f, good to firm) last time. Can make his presence felt again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newmarket 10/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 98 · 1m GF 131 · below its mark10/07/2025 · OR 98 par10/071OR 982 @ Newmarket 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m GF 135 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 98 par2 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 96 · 7f GF 132 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 96 par27/092OR 963 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 103 · 7f Gd 134 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 103 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 103 par1/052OR 1032 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 28 · OR 103 · 7f GF 136 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 103 par2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 103 · 7f GF 138 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 103 par11/072OR 1031 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Newbury 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 105 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 105 par18/091OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newbury13rd3rd0
2026-08-22Newmarket12nd2nd0
2026-07-11Newmarket23rd4th−1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot22nd3rd−1
2026-05-01Newmarket24th5th−1
2026-04-10Thirsk34th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0710/0411/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20257th11/142%0%-0.42
15/08/20256th7/282%29%-0.53
27/09/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
10/04/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
01/05/20264th11/893%40%-0.53
18/06/20262nd12/137%96%+0.59
11/07/20263rd13/266%83%+0.18
22/08/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
18/09/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13