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3

Myal

5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 104

Redcar · John Smith's EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful gelding who bagged 7f Thirsk conditions event in April. Posted a very good second in Haydock listed race (7f) in May but not quite at that level in 3 runs since, fourth of 8 in another listed event at Newbury (7f, good to firm) 15 days ago. This demands more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 100 · 7f GF 136 · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 100 par12/072OR 1002 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 16th of 17 · OR 99 · 7f192y Goo 137 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 99 par1 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 97 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 97 par4/101OR 971 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 104 · 6f2y Goo 136 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 104 par3 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 103 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 103 par10/043OR 1031 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 107 · 6f212y Gd 136 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 107 · 7f1y Goo 133 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 107 par11/071OR 1071 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 107 · 7f6y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 107 par1 @ Newbury 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 106 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 106 par18/091OR 106projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newbury14th4th0
2026-09-12Doncaster17th7th+0
2026-07-11Chester17th7th0
2026-05-09Haydock12nd2nd0
2026-04-10Thirsk31st4th−2
2026-03-28Doncaster15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0728/0311/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/202511th8/158%9%-0.49
21/08/202516th33/10%6%+0.06
04/10/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
28/03/20265th18/15%64%+0.58
10/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
09/05/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
11/07/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
12/09/20267th66/10%14%+0.14
18/09/20264th20/10%57%+0.57