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4

Sondad

5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 1 · OR 108

Redcar · John Smith's EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive sort who landed a third big handicap of the season in Constantine at York (6f) in August. Posted another very good effort (from less-than-ideal draw) when fourth of 24 in handicap at the Curragh (6f, good to soft) 20 days ago. Big shout if proving as effective back at 7f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 25 · OR 92 · 6f Sft 138 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 92 par20/092OR 922 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 93 · 6f Sft 132 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 93 par2 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 17th of 22 · OR 93 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 93 par13/052OR 932 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 92 · 6f3y Sft 127 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 27 · OR 92 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 92 par20/062OR 92BHA98 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 98 · 6f63y Goo 136 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 27 · OR 98 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 98 par1/082OR 982 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 138 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 104 parBHA109 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 24 · OR 109 · 6f Yie 144 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 109 par13/09109OR 109projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBHA1094th16th−10
2026-08-22York21st2nd−1
2026-08-01Goodwood27th8th−1
2026-07-18CurraghBHA981st12th−9
2026-06-20Royal Ascot29th10th−1
2026-06-06Epsom Downs21st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/096/061/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20252nd14/126%96%+0.70
03/10/20253rd7/282%78%-0.04
13/05/202617th25/10%24%+0.24
06/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
20/06/20269th28/10%69%+0.69
18/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
01/08/20267th9/153%77%+0.24
22/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
13/09/20264th9/276%87%+0.11