Vafortino
8yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 101
Redcar · John Smith's EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | BHA99 | 2nd | 13th | −9 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA100 | 3rd | 14th | −9 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Meydan | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Meydan | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 59% | +0.17 |
| 18/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 94% | +0.31 |