6
Valvano
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 101
Redcar · John Smith's EBF Stallions Guisborough Stakes (Listed) · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-17 | Yarmouth | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-06-07 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Goodwood | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2024 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 12/10/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 09/11/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 03/05/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 07/06/2025 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 8% | -0.74 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 75% | -0.08 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |