9
Barley
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 13 · OR 71
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 13th | 15th | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 42/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 06/09/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |