2
Classic Encounter
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 7 · OR 88
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Lingfield | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 3 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 2-13 · tight 42/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 38% | -0.55 |
| 23/08/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 58% | -0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 73% | -0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |