10
Harswell Ruby
4yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 69
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 13th | 17th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 9-14 · tight 73/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 14/08/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |