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13

Law Of Design

4yo Gelding · 8-2 · Draw 5 · OR 63

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y

#11

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Tumbled in the weights since handicap debut for Brian Meehan last season. Has found some form in recent starts, doing well to 'win his race' among the disadvantaged group when 3¾-length third over C&D latest. In a better race than ideal but he's well treated if building on that for in-form stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 78 · 7f36y Std 133 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 78 par20/124OR 784 @ Southwell 23/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f14y Std 132 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Chelmsford City 12/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 75 · 7f Std 135 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 75 par12/025OR 752 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 73 · 1m13y Std 129 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 70 · 7f1y Goo 142 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 70 par10/075OR 704 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f127y Goo 131 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 68 par6 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 65 par18/086OR 652 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 64 · 1m14y Goo 117 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 64 · 7f219y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 64 par15/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar53rd7th−3
2026-08-31Chepstow22nd2nd0
2026-08-18Chepstow65th10th−4
2026-07-25Chester45th7th−2
2026-07-10Chester55th9th−3
2026-04-07Southwell29th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/127/0418/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/202511th20/10%9%+0.09
23/01/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
12/02/20265th22/10%50%+0.50
07/04/20269th33/10%33%+0.33
10/07/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
25/07/20265th28/10%43%+0.43
18/08/20265th11/486%43%-0.43
31/08/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
15/09/20263rd7/163%83%+0.20