8
Poet's Dawn
11yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 71
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Redcar | 4 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 4 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 7-14 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |