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12

Shadow Run

3yo Gelding · 8-2 · Draw 2 · OR 67

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y

#14

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Form went the wrong way in Irish handicaps for Michael O'Callaghan. Hasn't kicked on from a promising start for current connections, either, for all he was poorly placed on first crack at 1m (isn't certain to stay) over C&D last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength13%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 13118/09C8C8 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 131BHA70 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 70 · 5f Sft 138 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 70 par22/0370OR 70BHA74 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 74 · 5f Sft 123 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 74 parBHA72 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 119 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par3/0672OR 724 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 122 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 72 par14/084OR 724 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 71 · 7f75y Sft 126 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 69 · 7f219y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 69 par15/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar59th13th−3
2026-08-29Beverley46th8th−2
2026-08-14Thirsk45th7th−2
2026-08-01Doncaster42nd4th−2
2026-06-03CurraghBHA7210th16th−5
2026-04-04CorkBHA744th11th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/094/0414/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength45%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20256th11/271%55%-0.17
12/10/20256th20/10%0%0.00
22/03/20262nd13/266%93%+0.27
04/04/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
03/06/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
01/08/20262nd18/15%80%+0.75
14/08/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
29/08/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
15/09/20269th33/10%33%+0.33