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Theoryofeverything

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 10 · OR 89

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Beat a subsequent winner when capitalising on a career-low mark at Ayr in August. Hasn't matched that form in a couple of heavy-ground handicaps subsequently. Cheekpieces go on for first time since joining current yard, and he may fare better back under less-testing conditions.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 95 · 1m Hvy 140 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 95 par25/103OR 952 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 94 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 93 · 7f192y Gd 122 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 93 par14/052OR 932 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 92 · 1m68y Goo 130 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 90 · 7f219y Gd 142 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 90 par19/063OR 903 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 89 · 1m Gd 142 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 89 par4 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 87 par8/084OR 873 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m1f207y Hvy 142 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 90 · 1m Hvy 130 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 90 par19/092OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr25th5th0
2026-08-30Beverley37th8th−1
2026-08-08Ayr41st3rd−2
2026-07-05Ayr38th9th−1
2026-06-19Redcar35th6th−1
2026-06-04Hamilton24th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/104/068/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20258th16/116%46%+0.30
28/03/202611th40/10%50%+0.50
14/05/20265th28/10%76%+0.76
04/06/20264th7/282%25%-0.57
19/06/20265th5/174%60%-0.14
05/07/20268th9/276%22%-0.54
08/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
30/08/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
19/09/20265th8/158%69%+0.11