11
Up The Jazz
5yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 9 · OR 68
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 5 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 8-14 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |