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3

Welbury

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 6 · OR 90

Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong-travelling 3-y-o. Again proved more straightforward than previously when readily completing a double over C&D in August. Wasn't seen to best effect when at York subsequently (raced without cover). Looks well worth another chance to confirm his improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 11/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f6y Gd 13011/0644 @ Musselburgh 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 1334 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m13y Std 12521/0345 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 72 · 7f213y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m68y Gd 135 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 74 par15/055OR 745 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m208y Gd 131 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 74 · 1m6y Goo 132 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 74 par7/075OR 744 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 79 · 7f219y Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 par2 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR 90 · 7f192y GS 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 90 par21/082OR 90projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21York212th12th0
2026-08-08Redcar41st3rd−2
2026-07-07Pontefract51st5th−3
2026-06-22Musselburgh54th8th−3
2026-05-15Hamilton52nd6th−3
2026-04-24Doncaster52nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0624/047/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength74%

Delivery trend +7.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/06/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
13/09/20255th9/488%56%-0.33
21/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
24/04/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
15/05/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
22/06/20264th7/282%40%-0.42
07/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
08/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
21/08/202612th22/10%39%+0.39