7
Wild Dahlia
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 75
Redcar · Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-Mile Series Final Handicap · 7f 219y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-10-22 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-02 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Chester | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 38% | -0.53 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |