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According To Mark

3yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 5 · OR 82

Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 218y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 3-y-o. Gelded prior to chasing home a useful one in a very valuable Doncaster novice in July. Disappointing third in first-time cheekpieces at Hamilton (11f) subsequently. Opening mark certainly a fair one if putting his best foot forward, though, with the longer trip likely to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m5y Std 13327/1153 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f1y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS20/0433 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f5y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS2/0632 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 1m3f197y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 84 par9/072OR 843 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 84 · 1m3f15y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 84 par1/083OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Hamilton33rd2nd+1
2026-07-09Doncaster22nd0th+2
2026-06-02Pontefract32nd1st+1
2026-04-20Redcar32nd1st+1
2025-11-27Newcastle54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1120/042/069/071/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -17.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20254th16/116%73%+0.57
20/04/20262nd5/287%67%-0.20
02/06/20262nd4/696%67%-0.30
09/07/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
01/08/20263rd5/493%50%-0.43