7
Dior Noir
4yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 8 · OR 67
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 218y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-11-02 | Curragh | ? | 14th | 19th | −4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Curragh | ? | 8th | 13th | −4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 14th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/11/2025 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |