3

Golden West

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 9 · OR 75

Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 218y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't won since going 2-2 as a juvenile. Best effort for present yard when chasing home a useful one at Thirsk in August. Again in a higher grade than necessary when not seen to best effect (beaten 6¾ lengths) at Ayr (13f, soft) last time. Ought to be more competitive with sights lowered.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Epsom Downs 01/06/2024 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 91 · 1m2f17y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2024 · OR 91 par1/062OR 913 @ Newbury 17/08/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m2f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2024 · OR 89 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2024 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m2f43y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2024 · OR 86 par12/092OR 863 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m2f70y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m3f39y GF 137 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 79 par24/064OR 794 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m3f188y Goo 140 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 1m4f8y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 78 par7/083OR 782 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m6f Sft 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m5f26y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 77 par17/093OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr38th7th+1
2026-09-05Haydock25th3rd+2
2026-08-07Thirsk32nd1st+1
2026-07-10York49th9th0
2026-06-24Carlisle42nd2nd0
2026-06-13Chester34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0613/067/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength67%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20248th7/163%36%-0.27
17/08/20247th10/147%14%-0.33
12/09/20248th25/10%22%+0.22
13/06/20264th28/10%67%+0.67
24/06/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
10/07/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
07/08/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
05/09/20265th40/10%56%+0.56
17/09/20268th7/163%30%-0.33