6
Northern Brave
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 4 · OR 75
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 218y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |