9
Pace Attack
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 72
Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 218y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Kempton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/04/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |