IvyArcIvyArc
5

Sure And Stedfast

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 72

Redcar · Market Cross Jewellers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 5f 218y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Suited by a truly-run race when recording a career-best success in a 6-runner handicap at Musselburgh (13f) in August. Seemed a touch rusty when 7¾-length fifth of 12 on contrasting ground at Hamilton (1½m, soft) following 7 weeks off last time. May not get his ideal pace scenario here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m2f50y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 68 par2/102OR 685 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m4f104y Sft 133 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m2f42y Std 128 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 68 par1/055OR 684 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 67 · 1m3f15y Gd 130 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 1m5f16y Goo 130 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 67 par4/065OR 675 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m4f98y Sta 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 68 · 1m5f16y Goo 125 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 68 par11/074OR 685 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 1m5f Gd 139 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m4f15y Sft 138 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 72 par21/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton55th6th−1
2026-08-07Musselburgh51st2nd−1
2026-07-11Hamilton43rd3rd0
2026-06-27Newcastle55th6th−1
2026-06-04Hamilton52nd3rd−1
2026-05-17Hamilton43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1017/0511/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20258th20/10%30%+0.30
05/11/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
01/05/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
17/05/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
04/06/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
27/06/20265th13/266%64%-0.02
11/07/20263rd3/184%50%-0.34
07/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
21/09/20265th14/126%64%+0.37