4
Accrual
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 12 · OR 80
Redcar · Watch Race Replays On racingtv.com Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 79/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |